Wednesday, April 17, 2013

How Pixar Used Moore’s Law to Predict the Future

How Pixar Used Moore’s Law to Predict the Future



Moore’s formulation was that the density of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months. (He actually first said 12 months, then 24 months — but the average stuck. It’s a “law,” not a law, after all.) But here’s my way of formulating Moore’s Law: Everything good about computers gets an order of magnitude better every five years.

So why bother with the intervening steps? If we know that computers will improve by a factor of 100 in 10 years, why not go directly to the higher factor instead of just getting a factor of 10 in five years?

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